Latest snowfall forecast for Friday-Saturday, as of Friday morning. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)
Happy Friday! It's the last full day of autumn. And a big pre-holiday getaway day, of course.
We are still watching two important weather stories arriving alongside the change of seasons:
1.) A complicated pair of storm systems, which will produce rain and snow over New Jersey from Friday morning through Saturday morning. Accumulations may end up somewhere between conversational snow and shovelable snow.
2.) Very cold air sending temperatures plummeting through the weekend, likely below freezing for 48+ hours.
Much of New Jersey has yet to experience its first measurable snow of the season. That may very well change over the next 24 hours. Let's dive in.
All good so far. I have seen some sprinkles butting up against our coastline early on. But your early commute should be uneventful. It is cloudy, with temperatures in the 30s.
As a coastal storm system swipes past New Jersey, we will see scattered shower activity increase from late morning through the afternoon. Light, hit-or-miss type stuff.
And mainly rain to start, at least for the southern half to two-thirds of the state. Farther north, it may be cold enough for snow or wintry mix at onset. Primarily along and north of the Interstate 78 corridor. You may encounter some slippery spots (mainly due to wet roads, not ice) -- but I doubt the evening commute will be heavily impacted by weather.
Friday's high temperatures will range from the mid 30s in North Jersey to the lower 40s in South Jersey. Skies will stay cloudy and winds will be light.
Once the sun sets (just after 4:30 p.m.), temperatures will start to drop. And so we will see a transition from light rain to light snow. First in central NJ, then along the I-295 corridor in SW NJ, and finally along the coast. I suspect that by Midnight at the latest, all precipitation falling from the sky across New Jersey will be snow.
As the second low pressure approaches from the west, there is a good chance for one or two heavier snow bands to set up early Saturday morning. That could lead to dramatically reduced visibility, and some quick accumulations. (Especially on colder, non-paved surfaces.) You will have to stay extra alert if you are out and about overnight.
Snow may linger over New Jersey until mid-morning Saturday, before finally exiting the coast.
In terms of total snow accumulation, I have nudged the forecast up slightly to follow along with the latest model trends:
-- 1 to 3 inches for most of North Jersey.
-- About an inch up and down the NJ Turnpike corridor through inland central and southern New Jersey.
-- A healthy coating of snow is even possible along the immediate coast.
-- Overperformance is a possibility here, as a heavier snow band could dump an extra inch or two on a very localized area.
Once the snow ends Saturday morning, partial sunshine should emerge through Saturday afternoon. But cold air will be arriving on a gusty wind, probably peaking at 20 to 30 mph. That is going to hurt, especially as temperatures descend from 30-ish early on into the 20s by the afternoon. Bundle up!
Very cold. Period, full stop.
Sunday will be the bottom of the barrel of this impending arctic blast. Morning lows will dip into the teens all across New Jersey. (Except perhaps along the immediate coast.) Afternoon highs will only reach the mid 20s. Yup, below freezing all day.
It will be sunny and very dry. With dew points around zero, expect chapped lips, dry sinuses, and cracked hands.
We might reach the freezing mark in the lower 30s on Monday. But it will be another unseasonably cold day. Even in the "dead of winter," about a month from now, this would be abnormally frigid.
You know, given this weekend's deep freeze, areas that see over an inch of snow could remain pretty white and wintry for a while. That could get... interesting... with Christmas just around the corner.
In addition, model forecasts for next week are showing a weak cold front coming into view on Tuesday morning. That is Christmas Eve morning. It looks like that could spark some light wintry mix precipitation, for northern New Jersey at least. However, the front may very well fizzle out before reaching NJ's southern coast.
In any case, don't expect much here. But holding out hope for at least a few snowflakes falling on Christmas? That is pretty magical, folks!
High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will hopefully spike into the more seasonable 40s.
There are some hints at a more substantial storm system arriving in the final days of 2024. But it is too early to talk details -- as always, we will keep you posted throughout the holiday week.