All the major regulatory numbers for 2024's new regulations are now in the books. Here are the highlights, followed by a little analysis and a preview of what 2025 might hold:
* Agencies issued 3,248 new final regulations in 2024.
* That's the equivalent of a new regulation every two hours and 42 minutes, 24/7, for all 366 days of the leap year.
* For comparison, there were 3,018 new final regulations in 2023, 3,168 in 2022, and 3,257 in 2021.
* Agencies issued 1,769 proposed regulations in 2024.
* For comparison, there were 2,102 proposed regulations in 2023, 2,044 in 2022, and 2,094 in 2021.
* The average 2024 Federal Register issue in 2024 contained429 pages.
* The 2024 Federal Register is an all-time record 107,261pages.
* The previous record for adjusted page count (subtracting skips, jumps, and blank pages) was 95,894, set in 2016.
* For comparison, the 2023 Federal Register totals 90,402 pages, the 2022 Federal Register has 80,756 pages, and 2021's is 74,352 pages.
* Rules with $200 million or more of economic effects in at least one year qualify as significant under Section 3(f)(1). This replaces the former economically significant tag for $100 million-plus regulations. There were 20 such rules in 2024.
* For comparison, there were 28 3(f)(1) and/or economically significant regulations in 2023, 43 economically significant rules in 2022, and 26 in 2021. Note that these are not apples-to-apples comparisons, since 3(f)(1) and economically significant rules have different thresholds.
* The total estimated cost of 2024's 3(f)(1) major regulations ranges from net savings of $16.42 billion to net savings of $26.45 billion, per the Office of Management and Budget's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.
* The reflection of savings is due in part to a methodology change in Circular 4-A, which now tasks analysts with justifying regulations, rather than calculating their costs and benefits.
* For comparison, the cost tally for 2023's 3(f)(1) major and economically significant regulations ranges from $62.60 billion to 90.48 billion. Cost estimates for 2022's economically significant rules range $45.28 billion to $78.05 billion. In 2021, net costs ranged from $13.54 billion to $19.92 billion. The exact numbers depend on discount rates and other assumptions.
* Agencies issued 336 new final regulations meeting the broader definition of "significant."
A presidential administration's final year is usually its busiest in terms of regulation, especially when there is a change power. Agencies rush to get as much of the outgoing administration's agenda in place as possible. This is called a midnight rush.
There were two midnight rushes in 2024, which I believe was a first, though it could become the new normal. The first rush happened in May and June, and was due to the Congressional Review Act (CRA). This allows Congress to repeal new regulations within 60 legislative days of its final publication in the Federal Register. The exact deadline for agencies to avoid CRA repeals depends on Congress' schedule, since it is 60 legislative days, not 60 calendar days or 60 business days. In practice, this usually means late spring or early summer.
Prior to the first Trump administration, Congress used the CRA only once, to repeal Clinton-era ergonomics regulations. In 2017, it revived the CRA and used it 16 times. With the CRA in play again, Biden officials decided to pass their major regulations early enough to avoid possible CRA repeals if Republicans won another trifecta in the 2024 elections.
The result was a glut of major regulations in May and June, and relatively few during the rest of the year, until the second, more traditional midnight rush began in November after the Republican trifecta came to pass. Rules issued during this second midnight rush will be vulnerable to CRA repeals.
When President-elect Trump takes office on January 20, he will likely freeze all in-process regulations. This is standard behavior for a party change in the White House. There will also likely be a sharp drop in new regulations in 2025, though only part of this would be due to any deregulatory agenda Trump pursues.
Just as an administration's final year is usually its busiest, its first year is usually its slowest, regardless of party. In addition to freezing the previous administration's activities, new administrations need time to staff agencies with its appointees and to set their agendas.
A final thing to note is that if there is a wave of deregulationunder Trump, it would cause a boost in Federal Register page counts and regulation counts. This is because in order to repeal a regulation, an agency has to publish a regulation doing so in the Federal Register.
This is why having a "deregulatory" tag for new rules would be useful for tracking net regulation, not just how many rules get published. This is one reason why, although Federal Registerpage counts and regulation counts are useful, they are not perfect measures of regulatory activity.