The food security outlook through March/ April 2025 is concerning in both GoY and SBA areas, as households are anticipated to face increasing inability to access food. In SBA areas, food prices are expected to remain mostly stable, but access to income will continue to be limited, resulting in depleted household stocks. In contrast, GoY areas are projected to see further price increases from their already elevated levels, significantly surpassing those of 2024 and the three-year average (see Figure 10). This situation indicates a growing dependence on markets, while household purchasing power diminishes, restricting food access and exacerbating food insecurity in many areas.

In November 2024, staple food prices continued to increase in GoY areas, building on already elevated levels, while remaining stable in SBA areas. In November 2024, prices for key staples, such as, Basmati rice, kidney beans, cooking oil, and wheat flour remained very high and continued to rise in GoY areas compared to the previous month, while they remained stable in SBA areas (see Table 1 and Figure 1). The stability in SBA areas was supported by strict enforcement of exchange rate and food price controls. Conversely, the price increases in GoY areas were mainly driven by higher import costs resulting from currency depreciation. When compared to the same month last year and the three-year average, food prices in GoY areas saw significant increases, ranging from 15% to 37% and 20% to 41%, respectively.

In line with food price trends, the Minimum Food Basket (MFB) rose by 5 percent month-on-month, 28 percent yearon-year, and 33 percent compared to the three-year average in GoY areas, in nominal terms. In contrast, MFB prices declined in SBA areas. The significant year-on-year increases in the MFB were noted in GoY Governorates: Marib (45%), Shabwa (43%), Al Mahrah (35%), Taizz (35%), Lahj (28%), Hadramout (22%), and Aden (19%) (see Figure 3). It's important to highlight that, despite nominal food price decreases and stability in SBA areas compared to the same month last year (5-14%) and the three-year average (5-19%), many low-income households still struggle to afford food in markets, like those in GoY areas. The US dollar values are comparable in both SBA and GoY areas, equally affecting households. In November 2022, the real MFB cost (in USD equivalent) was similar in both areas at $102; however, by November 2024, it was $8 (10%) higher in GoY areas compared to SBA areas. Over the past three years, the MFB in USD equivalent has decreased in both areas due to faster currency depreciation outpacing the overall increase in MFB prices (see Figure 2).

In November 2024, the local currency (YER) exchange rate with the US dollar in areas controlled by the Government of Yemen (GoY) continued to decline sharply, surpassing the YER 2,000/ $ 1 mark for the first time, equivalent to 3 percent loss from the previous month. In contrast, the YER exchange rate against the US dollar remained relatively stable in SBA areas during the same period. In past year and a half, the local currency in areas controlled by the Government of Yemen (GoY) has seen a significant decline, depreciating by 26% year-on-year and 33% compared to the threeyear average (3-YA) as of November 2024. In contrast, the YER in SBA areas remained relatively stable year-on-year and appreciated by 6% against the USD compared to the 3-YA (see Table 1 & Figure 4). The weak value of the YER in GoY areas is mainly attributed to depleted foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, strict exchange rate regulations in SBA areas have eased some pressure on the YER, despite ongoing acute shortages of USD.

In November 2024, diesel and petrol prices remained stable month-on-month in both SBA and GoY areas, although they were significantly higher in GoY areas compared to the same month last year and the three-year average levels. In November 2024, diesel and petrol prices remained unchanged from the previous month in most markets (see Table 1 & Figure 6). However, compared to the same month last year and the three-year average (3-YA), diesel and petrol prices in GoY areas increased significantly by 7-14% and 29-31%, respectively. In contrast, petrol and diesel prices in SBA areas saw only slight year-on-year increases of 1-2 percent but declined by 2-6% compared to the three-year average. The rise in fuel prices in GoY areas is mainly attributed to the depreciation of the local currency (YER) against the US Dollar. When considering USD equivalents, fuel prices in SBA areas are higher than those in GoY areas by $0.30 to $0.40 (see Figure 7).

Wheat imports through As Saleef and Aden Ports increased significantly in November 2024, rising by 139 percent month-on-month and 77 percent year-on-year, following record highs and lows in the previous months. In November 2024, wheat imports through Al Hodeidah remained relatively stable from the previous month, showing only a slight increase of 1%. In November 2024, wheat imports through the Red Sea ports saw a substantial increase, with As Saleef experiencing nearly a seven-fold increase (565%), and volumes in Aden tripling from the previous month. In contrast, wheat imports through Al Hodeidah saw little variation, showing only a 1% increase from the previous month. Compared to November 2023, wheat imports were 557% higher in Aden and 70% higher in As Saleef, but 11% lower in Al Hodeidah (see Figure 5). The surge in imports is attributed to the recovery of delayed deliveries initially affected by increased airstrikes targeting these ports due to Red Sea insecurity. Since July 2024, the volume of food and fuel imports through the ports of AlHodeidah, Al-Salif, and Ras Issa had fluctuated due to sustained airstrikes. However, during November, the airstrikes on the port of Al-Salif were less intense, enabling delayed ships to dock and unload cargo. Overall, the wheat imported through these three ports from January to December 2024 totalled 3.7 million MT, which is 15% higher than in the same period last year, ensuring ample availability in most markets across the country.

In November 2024, fish prices continued to decline due to as increase in seasonal supplies reaching the markets. Thamad fish prices decreased by 1-11% during the reporting month compared to October 2024, with a more significant drop observed in GoY areas (see Table 1). The period from October to December aligns with the peak fishing season and availability of this fish in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden, contributing to the lower market prices. However, despite this decline, Thamad fish prices in GoY areas remained significantly higher than a year ago, increasing by 7% and surpassing the three-year average by 21%. Conversely, fish prices in SBA areas were 10% lower than the three-year average.

In November 2024, livestock prices remained stable in both GoY and SBA areas, with only a slight decrease of 1-2 percent. However, prices for goats and sheep aged 6 to 12 months are significantly higher in GoY areas compared to the same month last year, with increases of 31-32%. When compared to the three-year average, prices have risen by 41-53%. In SBA areas, livestock prices in November remained relatively stable year-on-year and against the three-year average, with only minimal increases of 2-5% (see Table 1 and Figure 8).

In November 2024, casual labor wages increased at a slower pace month-on-month as demand for labour from the second season harvests decline. Nonetheless, the current average income levels remain insufficient to cover the cost of the Minimum Food Basket. Casual labor wage rates, including both agricultural and non-farm work, saw only a slight increase of 1-2% from the previous month, in line with reduced agricultural labor demand as the second season harvest comes to an end. In both SBA and GoY areas, farm labor wages stabilized, with month-on-month increases of 1-2%. While labor wages remained generally stable in SBA areas, increasing by 2-5%, they rose significantly in GoY areas by 5-20% compared to the same month last year and the three-year average. This increase is closely linked to the rising cost of the Minimum Food Basket (see Table 1 and Figure 8). Overall, households in both areas struggle to afford food due to the simultaneous rise in the cost of the Minimum Food Basket and the depreciation of the YER in GoY areas. Meanwhile, many households in SBA areas continue to face challenges from limited livelihoods and loss of income related to the suspension of public sector wages.

In November 2024, the purchasing power for livestock keepers and casual laborers remained largely stable monthon-month. In November 2024, the terms of trade (ToT) between agricultural/off-farm casual labor and wheat flour remained relatively stable in both GoY and SBA areas, mirroring the trend observed in the exchange rate between livestock (sheep/goats) and wheat flour. While the ToT for both livestock and labor relative to cereals exceeded levels from a year ago and the three-year average, households' ability to purchase food in markets continued to be limited due to critically low herd sizes and a lack of off-farm labor opportunities (see Figure 8 & Figure 9).